WEEK 7: You Never Know
So, before going out after work a few weeks ago, I decided to dip into an empty office and change clothes.
Swapping clothes in the tight bathroom stall didn’t really appeal to me, and the office I spotted had blackout curtains. It seemed ideal for a quick change — and it was.
But then I got to work this week and one of my co-workers asked me: “Did you change in an office recently?”
“Yeah, I did,” I replied.
“You know, we record everything,” she (and there’s an added layer here that I cannot publish, but can maybe tell DL subs in a “side” chat) shot back.
Oh. Well, knowing a random coworker has footage of me down to my skivvies is a bit awkward — and, not to scare you too much, but I don’t even wear skivvies.
I couldn’t really do much about it now, though, so I just said, “Ah, sorry about that,” and went about my day, a bit sheepishly.
The point is: you never know who is watching.
And at this point, you’re asking, how the hell does this apply to football?
For me, it’s the “you never know” part, which has been floating around in my head the past few days.
You never know when a meh team like the Falcons — who got smoked 30-0 by a meh Panthers team — will come out and upset a supposedly great Bills team. Or when a 40-year-old Joe Flacco is going to have one of the best games of his career on a random Thursday night.
It’s the Kirkland Brand way of saying “Any Given Sunday,” in other words.
And considering this newsletter is DESPERATELY seeking its first winning weekend, nearly two months into the year, I’m going to be leaning on the “you never know” factor and the underdogs this weekend. With some reasoning behind it.
Quick, Snack of the Week:
Arizona is not only the second-best state in the union, it’s also got some damn good gummies.
Alright, onto the SEXY 6 for Week 7.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Neutral Field)
And after that preamble… I start with a favorite. But hey, my Rams are a top 5 team in offensive and defensive DVOA. Obviously that’s with Puka Nacua usually playing, and this weekend he will NOT be.
But it’s a good, balanced squad, albeit one with a glaring special teams issue that needs to be fixed ASAP. I think they’ll find a way to win this one heading into their bye week. Bonus sentimental points for two of my Brit cousins going to the match errrr game this weekend in ol’ London.
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
I get it, AZ might be starting Jacoby “Baked” Brissett again this weekend, even though I’m not sure that’s much of a downgrade from Kyler Murray. But why is everyone pegging Green Bay as a juggernaut?
The Packers are 0-3 this season in games they’ve been favored by 6.5 points or more. I’ll take the home dog here.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
This is a gross game and unless you have family members playing for either team, you should probably seek mental help if you watch it. And yet, this X post about the crazy wind has me suddenly intrigued…
So here’s my thought process: Cleveland has kind of sucked running the ball. But Miami has really sucked defending the run — the ‘Fins have given up a league-worst amount of yards, and third-worst yards per carry, so far this season.
So if Kevin Stefanski is semi-smart, he’ll just run it 40 times; avoid the wind and try and take advantage of Miami’s crap defense. I’m looking forward to chicken legs Mike McDaniel’s next postgame press conference — which could be potentially his last?
New York Giants (+7) at Denver Broncos
Bet on the “Exciting Whites” Jaxson Dart and Cameron Skattebo using ATN Sports Consulting, as usual.
Las Vegas Raiders (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Ugh, my boy Geno Smith is “only” on pace for 28 INTs now. We gotta pump those numbers up and get back on a 30 pick-pace — and also get a garbage time TD to cover this spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Detroit Lions
Trampa has been good for us gamblers. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are 4-2 against the spread so far this season, tied for best in the NFL, and have gone 3-1 ATS on the road.
Detroit is 0-2, on the other end, as 5+ point favorites.
And speaking of “you never know,” I guess you never know when a guy like Bake-O is going to resurrect his career and go from a practice squad dude in Carolina to MVP frontrunner.
One of the only good calls this newsletter has made this year was pointing out Mayfield at +2500 to win MVP as a decent bet after Week 1. He’s at +300 now. Did I get a little “taste” at +2500? Of course not. But I’ll bet on him and a banged-up Bucs squad covering the spread this weekend.
Good luck!
Last Week: 3-3
2025 Season: 16-20