WEEK 10: My MVP Vote

Nov 09, 2024

That Thursday Night Football game was pretty neat, no?

I generally stay away from watching most TNF games — something I probably shouldn’t admit while offering faux-expert gambling advice. But come on, I already waste an entire day watching football each weekend — gimme a pass. Having said that, this Ravens-Bengals game sucked me in real good.

Between Ja’Marr “Eat Whatever I Want” Chase going for a million fantasy points (thanks Ja’Marr!), Derrick Henry scoring yet another touchdown, and the Joe Burrow-Lamar Jackson duel, there was plenty to like. Plus it came down to the last possession. Can’t ask for more than that — beyond giving Al Michaels some of those presidential pep pills before he goes on the air, maybe.

And the game got me thinking about who, a bit more than halfway through the regular season, is the best bet for MVP. Jackson, after his 4 touchdown, 0 turnover masterpiece on Thursday, is back in the lead for the award.

Most betting parlors have him listed right now as the MVP favorite at +175. Between his stats and the Ravens sitting at 7-3 (after an 0-2 start) it’s easy to see why.

And yet, I’m not touching him at +175 with a 10-foot pole.

Why? Because he’s already won two MVPs. You probably think that’s dumb, and I agree with you — that shouldn’t hurt his chances. But remember, journalists, who generally have negative athletic talent, are voting on this thing. They like a good story, a good “slant,” and it’s hard to find that for Jackson here. The story in Baltimore has been the Jackson + Henry equals more than 1+1=2. They cannibalize each other’s MVP case a bit — even if Jackson is clearly the most valuable player of the two and having his best season yet.

And another thing — writers likely won’t reward Jackson with a third MVP before he’s won his first Super Bowl. Again, that doesn’t seem too fair; it *is* a regular season award. Here’s the harsh truth for Jackson bettors, though: Only four players (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Brett Favre) have won three or more MVP awards since the AFL-NFL merger. And all four of those guys won their third MVP after they’d won at least one title. Rightly or wrongly, I bet 😏 reporters will hold that against him.

My “hot” take: this guy should be ranked ahead of Rodgers all-time. Three straight MVPs, went to back-to-back Super Bowls, and he wasn’t afraid to throw a backbreaking interception

That’s why I’d put my dough on Josh Allen. His TD production is close enough to Jackson’s, his team is winning (7-2), and he’s doing it with a bunch of guys at WR no one had heard of before the season. And he hasn’t won before — which’ll definitely lube up those angle-whore writers.

Here’s how the top four MVP candidates stack up heading into Week 10:

Lamar Jackson(+175): 26:5 TD-to-Turnover Ratio, 3,207 total yards through 10 games

Josh Allen(+350): 20:2 TD-to-Turnover Ratio, 2,212 total yards through nine games

Patrick Mahomes(+500): 12:9 TD-to-Turnover Ratio, 2,090 total yards through eight games

Jared Goff (+700): 14:4 TD-to-Turnover Ratio, 1,856 total yards through eight games

Mahomes goes out the window for me once the Chiefs lose a game. And even if they went undefeated… we’re giving him the MVP with his Sam Bradford-esque stats? IDK. And Goff’s been fine, but his team is littered with stars and his stats still don’t touch the other top guys. Pass on that.

So there you have it, Allen is my pick. It seems like an obvious pick — but so did betting on the presidential winner this week, and I spaced on putting any money on that.

Now it’s time to make some picks for this week. Onto the Sexy 6 for Week 10 — AFTER the…

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