Fuck it, let’s bet.
Not to be dramatic, but I was planning on hanging up my gambling jockstrap for this season.
I’ve got a lot on my plate with work, after all. (Whether you love or loathe the president, we’ve got you covered at Mediaite.com.) And I need a little bit of free time so I can try and not be the oldest guy to get married in NYC since Jerry Sein ditched Shoshanna.
But, as the great Junior Soprano once put it, some things are a matter of duty. I owe it to my fellow degenerates to keep this going; the millions and millions (read: couple and couple) of DL subs who have asked me when the newsletter is coming back have made me decide — to use a meme from a highly overrated Scorsese flick — that:
So, with that out of the way, let me admit something else: I have not been following the major NFL storylines too closely this offseason. Call it a lingering hangover from Kyren Williams fumbling away McVay’s second ring back in January. (I’m sure my friends are tired of hearing me bitch about that by now.)
Having said that, when it comes to the Micah Parsons trade, I’m siding with Substack star Ethan “Straussie” Strauss: The Cowboys probably weren’t winning the Super Bowl this year, so why not deal him?
Two first round picks isn’t chopped liver, and they can always deal Ceedee Lamb next offseason if they want to do a full reboot. It could be a mini-version of the Herschel Walker deal, 2026 edition, and maybe spur Dallas to another ring before Jerry Jones turns 90. And yes, my brain has been warped by Netflix’s Cowboys documentary/infomercial, which I found rather enjoyable.
Another thing I noticed this offseason… Pete Carroll has less wrinkles than I do. And he’s 39 years older than me. I need to make some more dough so I can afford his plastic surgeon, because there’s no way this just Botox:
Hey, good for him. I’m cheering for Cheat in LV.
As for predictions, here’s what I’m thinking:
Super Bowl: LA Rams beat the LA Chargers. Shocking, I know. But after hearing Peter Schrager ballwash Jimmy Garoppolo as a serviceable replacement to Stafford on Bill Simmons’ podcast, I’m suddenly not too worried about having a 37-year-old semi-crippled QB leading my favorite team.
And I’m putting my $ where my fingers are; I’ve already got a little “taste” of my Rams at +2000, and will be adding to that soon.
MVP: Joe Burrow +600
Playoff Oddball Bets: Jags +152 and Panthers +270 to make it, Chiefs +310 to miss it. And no, I have not been smoking big weed lately.
First Coach Fired: Jonathan Gannon (AZ) +800
Over/Under: Chargers OVER 9.5 wins +105, Raiders OVER 7.5 wins +140, Niners UNDER 10.5 wins -125, Chiefs UNDER 11.5 wins -135, Lions UNDER 10.5 wins -130
Alright, here’s the SEXY 6 for Week 1:
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at New England Patriots
Between the pink cocaine rumors and the resurfacing of those other rumors, it was an interesting offseason for new Pats WR Stefon Diggs. Thanks for the content, Stefon.
Tennessee Titans (+8.5) at Denver Broncos
I’ve always liked to lean on the dogs in Week 1. Since 2019, underdogs cover the spread 59% of the time (36-25-0 on the road, 18-16-1 at home).
And road dogs who are expected to lose by 6 or more are a hair better dating back to 2010, covering 60% of the time. (41-27-1 against the spread). So go Cam Ward, I guess.
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey is already injured…
New York Giants (+5.5) at Washington Deadskins errr Commanders
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Houston Texans
Houston supposedly has a shitty offensive line, and the Rams front 7 is pretty nice… so I’ll say the defense carries LA to a 24-17 win.
By the way, here’s an AI-generated image of what it would look like for me celebrate with McVay after the Rams win the The Big Game in Santa Clara next year, courtesy of Grok:
It’s revolutionary technology, people tell me.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
It’s not the playoffs, so I like Lamar Jackson to edge this one out.
And as always, if you want to make bets with a trustworthy, all-American company, check out AtN Sports Consulting.
Good look and enjoy the games!
Grok version of Sean is nightmare fuel.